Bear Market Probability Index

Summary Model Data
Date Percentage
02-19590.14990363431703
03-19590.1550590701829
04-19590.14138881781046
05-19590.17605430871631
06-19590.17875990302893
07-19590.17927875838765
08-19590.18418966406184
09-19590.21434192220149
10-19590.21625062162306
11-19590.20266487729995
12-19590.20046770877412
01-19600.21676555842298
02-19600.22533428886933
03-19600.23097186153109
04-19600.21714454971709
05-19600.18291980860074
06-19600.19365433463673
07-19600.17716484557679
08-19600.14467375859417
09-19600.13097885960011
10-19600.12731457932705
11-19600.10319361297851
12-19600.078747816330778
01-19610.14113291101458
02-19610.10832718960499
03-19610.081329874708083
04-19610.10695591173424
05-19610.089961420818958
06-19610.067473500751842
07-19610.099083418700995
08-19610.094756279227386
09-19610.11648412380731
10-19610.13844356691712
11-19610.11587138273096
12-19610.10553695760633
01-19620.11886235007312
02-19620.15719277176493
03-19620.15680063313897
04-19620.1245191897521
05-19620.14502879881756
06-19620.14223653405081
07-19620.16073342654232
08-19620.15829647145981
09-19620.16129888520143
10-19620.16529935972139
11-19620.16836538737451
12-19620.16950714520563
01-19630.1705076869859
02-19630.16809342201679
03-19630.15888640548904
04-19630.16983611471571
05-19630.16508955859359
06-19630.16571661860396
07-19630.21173610570636
08-19630.20356323943954
09-19630.20300629256736
10-19630.20019349536092
11-19630.18985627161765
12-19630.19614425991823
01-19640.19774281717166
02-19640.18771674745878
03-19640.19059793793806
04-19640.19567006998044
05-19640.19805200785654
06-19640.1890242018714
07-19640.1964572133755
08-19640.19102118253476
09-19640.18362793632425
10-19640.20162447180421
11-19640.23336604754845
12-19640.23794060877191
01-19650.24494506247076
02-19650.25197143664079
03-19650.25914673885826
04-19650.25917859577616
05-19650.25197143664079
06-19650.25914673885826
07-19650.25690356604688
08-19650.23981726860911
09-19650.24134923051055
10-19650.23350379997578
11-19650.23997632015677
12-19650.25155495816317
01-19660.24838007686189
02-19660.24958763707434
03-19660.26397330104595
04-19660.28662551996498
05-19660.31567317532553
06-19660.30425034583762
07-19660.3063853132404
08-19660.29649217905976
09-19660.33371785134308
10-19660.34176796876323
11-19660.341392655149
12-19660.31796783286411
01-19670.31877156963455
02-19670.27169244544402
03-19670.21596893962334
04-19670.18755546239556
05-19670.18028374392381
06-19670.16018547787549
07-19670.16153539898627
08-19670.16625034396383
09-19670.15182083853007
10-19670.15500072594783
11-19670.17970045545937
12-19670.19507567008694
01-19680.2011898243898
02-19680.2148607604727
03-19680.28448964604786
04-19680.29557946048754
05-19680.3074557336819
06-19680.32786061423487
07-19680.33934429675226
08-19680.30592357912095
09-19680.30623871697111
10-19680.28436511586969
11-19680.27198324731632
12-19680.29682404010743
01-19690.31144182288822
02-19690.31746303102829
03-19690.40078755022734
04-19690.54527440669301
05-19690.52909078176732
06-19690.46423638616044
07-19690.54704507740022
08-19690.46146302579394
09-19690.4529137092197
10-19690.43028993616168
11-19690.38010322572413
12-19690.36623142306358
01-19700.43094903775892
02-19700.32978282105728
03-19700.3288238705313
04-19700.27491094554548
05-19700.25689136727889
06-19700.25542184199989
07-19700.21401273501335
08-19700.20282992281964
09-19700.20066993816121
10-19700.18997585262759
11-19700.17103268188362
12-19700.13873050911729
01-19710.12427406853455
02-19710.13525010187533
03-19710.15299592413687
04-19710.15699500498227
05-19710.16633032605106
06-19710.17889319386284
07-19710.20032458435119
08-19710.22550544982851
09-19710.2136154455323
10-19710.2003689691865
11-19710.14881205415035
12-19710.11924413531996
01-19720.1085451646352
02-19720.12993064242176
03-19720.14162150244288
04-19720.148339540528
05-19720.15871656665875
06-19720.16352670921227
07-19720.17316816342592
08-19720.16313955096289
09-19720.17487134628249
10-19720.18505388917403
11-19720.19754185304863
12-19720.23264608671611
01-19730.26806467500574
02-19730.30475481977608
03-19730.31121021500557
04-19730.36058501784597
05-19730.42319614286899
06-19730.63297960776477
07-19730.59158877316871
08-19730.70183511680963
09-19730.64984170749035
10-19730.66762001152806
11-19730.65206569137453
12-19730.55361854434137
01-19740.47059302890352
02-19740.47742529892808
03-19740.57209650753507
04-19740.66956472497678
05-19740.77620800842047
06-19740.87031951025264
07-19740.67146226010279
08-19740.58303723690176
09-19740.45770930171563
10-19740.42322255657112
11-19740.36299172854945
12-19740.24753638653345
01-19750.2000821442643
02-19750.15450760210119
03-19750.13974609591848
04-19750.13437037675794
05-19750.15123084789481
06-19750.1676015348435
07-19750.15903905309657
08-19750.16205262784957
09-19750.15397617312986
10-19750.1345886302832
11-19750.13501092758838
12-19750.12946763016635
01-19760.12514719424986
02-19760.12867081666021
03-19760.13166804668774
04-19760.1404676948149
05-19760.14852790198849
06-19760.14291419634029
07-19760.14368593722248
08-19760.14688297175919
09-19760.14271259737079
10-19760.14316049596014
11-19760.14253753044964
12-19760.1321528323303
01-19770.13053814486973
02-19770.12933408355096
03-19770.13279406306304
04-19770.15465479436637
05-19770.16210883721933
06-19770.1617944846739
07-19770.18192196072962
08-19770.19692965693803
09-19770.20663279295864
10-19770.20599588925442
11-19770.20361030542774
12-19770.19900524280207
01-19780.20006174651146
02-19780.20013987672166
03-19780.20049187947897
04-19780.21557219779472
05-19780.22300737086478
06-19780.22551736047882
07-19780.25017208568961
08-19780.27478700462703
09-19780.29337354170665
10-19780.33630438968599
11-19780.33977267171675
12-19780.3355095148059
01-19790.33480562834824
02-19790.33535967952874
03-19790.32527205241668
04-19790.33578760984245
05-19790.36769855306614
06-19790.37817344616073
07-19790.40869313155041
08-19790.41904924038024
09-19790.51278413587688
10-19790.42876531041439
11-19790.50322120514307
12-19790.46287993225071
01-19800.35656565043367
02-19800.52315784327001
03-19800.71920506521559
04-19800.31795732495658
05-19800.25634059416071
06-19800.21537252144422
07-19800.20888790176503
08-19800.24447236432585
09-19800.32514645285854
10-19800.43863429870783
11-19800.64737330297369
12-19800.69888470053265
01-19810.40584157284857
02-19810.34447811470472
03-19810.36372835416645
04-19810.491882028137
05-19810.59062181311844
06-19810.50956204384538
07-19810.39472614633355
08-19810.29272505401099
09-19810.27040393180161
10-19810.26968464178778
11-19810.22446724968999
12-19810.2264964056208
01-19820.2861502812122
02-19820.30625251728385
03-19820.31707618747587
04-19820.30730760805138
05-19820.2672986743825
06-19820.22487450099361
07-19820.17384955284606
08-19820.19652548087103
09-19820.21931241271845
10-19820.21153951137411
11-19820.20201230987318
12-19820.19429004255996
01-19830.18065443490305
02-19830.1961090302295
03-19830.20079736378947
04-19830.19491037040307
05-19830.19343723730857
06-19830.19177370837958
07-19830.18543559876456
08-19830.18709620336751
09-19830.19104507724011
10-19830.18254018896345
11-19830.18310765523134
12-19830.19016066233509
01-19840.18664548770673
02-19840.18454938576304
03-19840.18845096913426
04-19840.17198905978932
05-19840.18879700198305
06-19840.1985482366898
07-19840.23060602427883
08-19840.22489563636398
09-19840.19106653776257
10-19840.18856990296876
11-19840.15831329503255
12-19840.15994127630873
01-19850.16148691718998
02-19850.15663605659834
03-19850.1566660318178
04-19850.16020693653962
05-19850.16235780935779
06-19850.17016262320702
07-19850.17032005896025
08-19850.16996791657996
09-19850.17575765544853
10-19850.19167068202103
11-19850.22067069957953
12-19850.21744451858834
01-19860.22529769947978
02-19860.25288150181982
03-19860.2509319250891
04-19860.21863051761224
05-19860.21807112086
06-19860.22313470441085
07-19860.2066983815135
08-19860.17947354397674
09-19860.17829434865062
10-19860.1955792815077
11-19860.25815560005105
12-19860.22744622115126
01-19870.19887311957198
02-19870.2005397797122
03-19870.18080848874891
04-19870.18129307741009
05-19870.18336102271826
06-19870.1751977218123
07-19870.17153307815131
08-19870.17090490298761
09-19870.1706633122896
10-19870.167009862278
11-19870.16632745020713
12-19870.17844798767094
01-19880.18346166294853
02-19880.17785885465694
03-19880.17847332216392
04-19880.17565250312594
05-19880.19909345976091
06-19880.20457755062937
07-19880.20857084577128
08-19880.22919674218435
09-19880.24388296051723
10-19880.23847784966771
11-19880.25295219021173
12-19880.27464537742108
01-19890.28418010639934
02-19890.30223587463691
03-19890.31388293401572
04-19890.33591366355898
05-19890.36499516714576
06-19890.36578976591742
07-19890.33673889055831
08-19890.33215780453227
09-19890.33360813398916
10-19890.32277639605277
11-19890.31748036650538
12-19890.27417973216879
01-19900.25865343993423
02-19900.25412253776435
03-19900.24220218028435
04-19900.23936786801282
05-19900.26109126898267
06-19900.25327251661716
07-19900.23716203001139
08-19900.23398721849666
09-19900.23758920842455
10-19900.23797972080546
11-19900.22586413542586
12-19900.20405587610221
01-19910.18151039086334
02-19910.16685588298255
03-19910.16037341500724
04-19910.15436514424544
05-19910.15322081978043
06-19910.15051021846446
07-19910.15443482374243
08-19910.1531767213315
09-19910.1469422844296
10-19910.13453454902485
11-19910.12833250976892
12-19910.1157246569505
01-19920.11117115332966
02-19920.10572351408653
03-19920.099792202933425
04-19920.10345735767542
05-19920.10366062833959
06-19920.095276141111217
07-19920.10020576820208
08-19920.10036392016362
09-19920.094393640345002
10-19920.090651736673282
11-19920.087436551168958
12-19920.092046467709529
01-19930.09695469663771
02-19930.10273584667151
03-19930.099232598259951
04-19930.099404264720338
05-19930.10206539654395
06-19930.10547783128866
07-19930.10690454173546
08-19930.11647525849582
09-19930.11292216100015
10-19930.10574879543807
11-19930.1026587219295
12-19930.10626663434458
01-19940.10925316338918
02-19940.10315422891212
03-19940.10220539480951
04-19940.11236526245155
05-19940.12174473423451
06-19940.11813373167701
07-19940.12643139842781
08-19940.13073813833522
09-19940.1258188244657
10-19940.13904232033656
11-19940.14871515138237
12-19940.15267441316882
01-19950.18016503623593
02-19950.19457573500711
03-19950.20520983258578
04-19950.22667120092466
05-19950.25845005409068
06-19950.23829217647822
07-19950.21687457588546
08-19950.24017655353487
09-19950.24900255031059
10-19950.26134047532045
11-19950.26271501226923
12-19950.26444889947444
01-19960.22305463243269
02-19960.2010955997225
03-19960.18360341750863
04-19960.17475458313901
05-19960.16959673391413
06-19960.17781751669203
07-19960.17786015086513
08-19960.17423853180806
09-19960.18382903786459
10-19960.20500787239871
11-19960.198193516498
12-19960.18213382442677
01-19970.18605937858066
02-19970.18503428615513
03-19970.18281238316395
04-19970.1903443176959
05-19970.20511153810755
06-19970.21819379632591
07-19970.2146770716375
08-19970.22023800519035
09-19970.22923312363726
10-19970.24175510768063
11-19970.24556663913977
12-19970.27481244620182
01-19980.26715001702882
02-19980.25805907208107
03-19980.25533295570095
04-19980.25805907208107
05-19980.27877493520257
06-19980.28082634655345
07-19980.29468361722617
08-19980.36126995466006
09-19980.34367808690906
10-19980.27287101288254
11-19980.27634910760239
12-19980.26281696355385
01-19990.24819236611942
02-19990.23273407963293
03-19990.23058924400867
04-19990.20465473898021
05-19990.18544632993187
06-19990.20724031124205
07-19990.20380707974626
08-19990.21571058835956
09-19990.2027946204771
10-19990.22322813085268
11-19990.1999065912518
12-19990.18982418512075
01-20000.21444835736014
02-20000.23970883319401
03-20000.2755676572648
04-20000.25904074222959
05-20000.31303380866805
06-20000.31943384973627
07-20000.34088570994629
08-20000.34691830656102
09-20000.35357194229349
10-20000.35623776944806
11-20000.41619821387664
12-20000.37049987789791
01-20010.31666444089091
02-20010.32245737287895
03-20010.23939751198448
04-20010.17604363776643
05-20010.16593514882476
06-20010.15537958031489
07-20010.16015636177392
08-20010.13475202790326
09-20010.10935514671027
10-20010.090595085684731
11-20010.075735401634342
12-20010.073653376667435
01-20020.075267158615113
02-20020.071444860227534
03-20020.072603586881018
04-20020.07306599758786
05-20020.075353795518529
06-20020.077900180161648
07-20020.083622268416385
08-20020.09108140284985
09-20020.089660257127143
10-20020.071894541685184
11-20020.068707299171981
12-20020.068502717711786
01-20030.070808968499184
02-20030.071505243864207
03-20030.07013417225234
04-20030.075056723361734
05-20030.077044302258199
06-20030.061742934844531
07-20030.059018348690992
08-20030.059630971464013
09-20030.059497475743715
10-20030.05915053923733
11-20030.058783619412719
12-20030.060169180276217
01-20040.060975087835687
02-20040.062656186173797
03-20040.058828881667586
04-20040.056687269074135
05-20040.057382825880638
06-20040.065057914064533
07-20040.072351800963927
08-20040.080644142220832
09-20040.087087817028403
10-20040.092597569724182
11-20040.10218072276733
12-20040.1083653873277
01-20050.12197173566845
02-20050.11834262096043
03-20050.13307979526565
04-20050.15701665446501
05-20050.1686839384695
06-20050.17562628458866
07-20050.19108591803402
08-20050.20727118983832
09-20050.20135673340683
10-20050.21540783888478
11-20050.23787480467615
12-20050.25750194150987
01-20060.26362818264475
02-20060.25845531633753
03-20060.25212121796447
04-20060.25554518259791
05-20060.26053625208633
06-20060.28907809147413
07-20060.3162674252471
08-20060.33917733157963
09-20060.33765865946804
10-20060.35839612850748
11-20060.36372835416645
12-20060.33317496581787
01-20070.34055053126354
02-20070.36674854281369
03-20070.34380745324745
04-20070.33465760151922
05-20070.28904550477652
06-20070.30203050504726
07-20070.31573549866423
08-20070.32684033412464
09-20070.30131214967256
10-20070.32000976200225
11-20070.291726204191
12-20070.30289630184789
01-20080.1817357869398
02-20080.16316544315021
03-20080.1269821778966
04-20080.10211427400882
05-20080.097678839171435
06-20080.10030237183924
07-20080.10289060518165
08-20080.098201709570872
09-20080.061845198132799
10-20080.045260260798971
11-20080.040412529762828
12-20080.039691532191332
01-20090.041563865203416
02-20090.040162603382302
03-20090.038778993109388
04-20090.039164515617642
05-20090.039355171229067
06-20090.038092739892822
07-20090.038051460778439
08-20090.038001928703804
09-20090.037041757856263
10-20090.037030272301957
11-20090.036824113999962
12-20090.036389175151505
01-20100.03702323753022
02-20100.037867537077492
03-20100.038861629732122
04-20100.039577225609964
05-20100.039333088988685
06-20100.039721832332907
07-20100.040877477830605
08-20100.041022521992519
09-20100.041361645397618
10-20100.040710333703998
11-20100.039164515617642
12-20100.038664134587296
01-20110.038065144219484
02-20110.037665128975396
03-20110.036324024081202
04-20110.036267522075952
05-20110.036445515642722
06-20110.035706994268049
07-20110.037931630305987
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