Bear Market Probability Index
Current Bear Market Probability:
16.63%
-0.0035
-2.08%
Bear Market Probability over the next 24 months
As of end of month: 05-2026
Average:
17.88%
Maximum:
86.71%
Minimum:
1.45%
The Bear Market Probability can be more technically described as the probability of a bear market given the yield curve ("P[BM|YC]"). Additionally, we define the Bear Market Probability as the chance of a Stock Market decline that is 20% or greater over the next 24 months. We also define the Yield Curve here as a comparison of the federal funds and 10 year treasury rates.